The U.S. real estate market’s recent history is a story of sudden, severe disruptions. Each spring for the past three years, an unforeseen event has dramatically reshaped the economic landscape, forcing real estate professionals to recalibrate their annual revenue forecasts.
First, a landmark 2024 settlement altered fundamental industry commission structures. Then, a cascade of new import tariffs in 2025 injected widespread economic uncertainty. Now, the conflict with Iran—which has shut the critical Strait of Hormuz—has triggered a spike in oil prices and, consequently, mortgage rates, reaching levels few anticipated.
While the March 2026 data from Inman’s Intel Index shows only a modest immediate pullback in client activity, the forward-looking sentiment among agents has deteriorated significantly. The once-optimistic outlook for 2026 has “fizzled,” as higher borrowing costs and geopolitical instability have prompted a collective pause.
Agent Sentiment Cools as Future Outlook Dims
The primary measure of this shift is the Client Pipeline Tracker, a composite score derived from the Intel Index survey that closed on April 2. This metric gauges agent sentiment on both current and anticipated buyer and seller pipelines.
After starting 2026 on a relatively high note, the score fell to +4 in March, down from a recent high of +13 in January. This marks a move from “moderately optimistic” to a “more cautious outlook,” indicating that while present conditions haven’t collapsed, expectations for the next 12 months have been revised downward.
- Previous high point: +13 in January
- 12 months ago: -1 in March 2025
Chart by Daniel Houston
Read about the four components that went into the score in the full report.
How to Interpret the Tracker Scores
The Client Pipeline Tracker synthesizes four key sentiment indicators. Understanding the scale is crucial:
- A score of 0 represents a neutral period where pipelines are seen as stable.
- A positive score reflects improving or expected-to-improve pipelines. A “significantly positive” reading is around +20.
- A negative score suggests worsening or expected-to-worsen pipelines. A “significantly negative” reading is near -20.
For individual components, scores can range from +50 (overwhelmingly positive) to -50 (overwhelmingly negative).
Tracker Component Scores: February → March
- Present buyer pipelines: -15 → -18
- Future buyer pipelines: +20 → +9
- Present seller pipelines: -3 → -6
- Future seller pipelines: +20 → +14
A Shift Driven by Expectation, Not Current Crisis
The most telling insight from the March data is the disconnect between present conditions and future fears. The deterioration in the overall score was fueled almost entirely by collapsing expectations, not a mass exodus of current clients.
The “present” scores for both buyer and seller pipelines ticked down only slightly. This suggests that as of late March, the immediate impact of higher rates on clients who were already in the process of buying or selling had been limited.
The story is in the “future” scores. The share of agents who expected their buyer pipelines to grow in the next year plummeted from 49% in February to just 36% in March. Correspondingly, those expecting stability or slight decline surged from 48% to 61%. Only a small, steady 3% predicted a “significant” thinning of buyer pools.
“As long as actual clients aren’t heading for the door, agents don’t see this as a disaster scenario for the 2026 market,” the report notes. “But many are reassessing their prospects for business revenue in the months to come.”
On the listing (seller) side, the shift was similar but less severe. Agents appear to believe sellers will be somewhat more resilient. Those expecting improved listing pipelines fell from 50% to 41%, while those anticipating no change rose from 38% to 46%. Pessimism increased only marginally, from 12% to 13%.
The Long Tail of the Strait of Hormuz Closure
Agents’ caution is a direct response to a complex and evolving set of risks stemming from the Hormuz closure. The impacts are not uniform in their timing:
- Immediate: Higher gasoline prices and mortgage rates are being felt by consumers now, directly affecting purchasing power and monthly housing costs.
- Medium-to-Long Term: The strait is a vital route for global fertilizer shipments. Shortages could affect crop yields and food prices later in 2026 and into 2027, creating broader economic pressure that indirectly impacts housing demand.
The longer the key trade route remains closed, the more these secondary and tertiary risks compound. Agent sentiment, as a forward-looking gauge, is highly sensitive to this cloud of uncertainty.
Inman Intel will continue to monitor these attitudes in weekly and monthly surveys to track how the industry’s pulse responds to unfolding events.
Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel survey ran from March 24 through April 2, and received 474 responses. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating, randomized selection of community members was prompted to participate by email. Users responded to a series of questions related to their self-identified corner of the real estate industry — including real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the opinions of the engaged Inman community, which may not always match those of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.
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