In this series of maps and tables, Intel explores which U.S. markets got hit with a double-whammy of outbound movers and reduced immigration flows last year.
At its core, the housing market is a story of where and why people move from place to place — and now that picture is coming into clearer focus.
New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau reveal the parts of the country that people continued to move out of last year, and where inbound migration didn’t fully offset these losses. They also confirm the markets which continued to benefit from an influx of new potential homebuyers.
The data — which covers a year-long period ending July 1, 2025 — sheds light on a crucial time for a real estate industry that continued to fracture along regional lines when it came to housing inventory and sales, and on the uneven consequences of trade policy and immigration enforcement that occurred last year.
Explore this data down to the county level with Intel’s interactive maps.
The Great Migration Shift: A Two-Part Pressure on Housing
For years, real estate analysts have tracked domestic migration patterns—where Americans move within the country—as a key driver of housing demand. Yet, a critical second piece of the puzzle, international immigration, has often operated in the background. New federal data for the year ending mid-2025 allows us to see, for the first time in such granular detail, how these two powerful forces combined to reshape local housing markets.
The result is what Intel calls a “double-whammy”: specific regions experiencing both a net loss of U.S. residents moving out *and* a significant slowdown in the international immigration that had previously helped bolster their populations and labor force. This dual pressure creates a unique and challenging dynamic for local housing economies.
Mapping Domestic Departures: The Red and Blue of American Mobility
The first map in our analysis visualizes net domestic migration—the difference between Americans moving into a county and those leaving it—for the year through July 2025. The pattern is both familiar and revealing.
Counties shaded blue gained more domestic movers than they lost. These inflows represent a direct pipeline of new potential homebuyers and renters, often driven by factors like relative affordability, job opportunities, or lifestyle preferences. The bright spots include the Pacific Northwest, the interior West (like Arizona and Nevada), the sprawling suburbs of Texas metro areas, the growth corridors of the Carolinas and Georgia, central Florida, and select parts of New England and the Midwest.
Counties shaded red saw more U.S. residents leave than arrive. This chronic out-migration, particularly pronounced in California, the High Plains, the Mississippi Delta region, and some high-cost metro areas like Miami, translates to a shrinking domestic buyer pool. For these markets, housing demand is increasingly dependent on other factors, such as international immigration or natural increase (births minus deaths).
Context: A Persistent Trend Accelerates
These domestic flows are not new; they represent a decade-long shift from high-cost coastal and Rust Belt cities toward Sun Belt and lower-cost alternatives. What the 2025 data underscores is the persistence of this trend even amid a broader economic cooling. The movers leaving red-shaded areas are, by definition, prime candidates to purchase or rent housing in their new destinations, directly fueling the blue markets’ growth.
The Immigration Shock: A Nationwide Deceleration
The second, and arguably more transformative, layer of this story is captured in the map comparing net international immigration rates between 2024 and 2025. Unlike the domestic map, which shows a mix of gains and losses, this map is overwhelmingly uniform in one direction: decline or stagnation.
Nearly every county in the United States saw its rate of international immigration slow compared to the prior year. Some markets, particularly those with large established immigrant communities or significant refugee resettlement operations, experienced a more pronounced drop. This trend coincided directly with stricter border enforcement policies in the final months of the Biden administration and the ramp-up of aggressive detention and deportation policies under the Trump administration in early 2025.
Critical Nuance: Net Positive vs. Slowing Growth
It is vital to understand what this map shows and what it does not. It illustrates the *change* in the immigration rate, not the absolute number of immigrants. Many major metropolitan areas—from New York and Chicago to Dallas and Phoenix—still recorded net-positive international immigration in 2025. However, the *pace* of that influx slowed dramatically. For years, this international inflow had acted as a demographic counterweight to domestic out-migration in many struggling cities, delaying or softening population decline. The 2025 data suggests that buffer is weakening.
The Convergence: Identifying the “Double-Whammy” Markets
The true insight emerges when we overlay these two datasets. The most vulnerable housing markets are those shaded red on the domestic migration map *and* showing a significant decline or negative shift on the immigration rate map. These are the regions hit with the double-whammy: losing their own residents to other parts of the country *while simultaneously* seeing the foreign-born population growth that had helped sustain them begin to stall.
While a precise county-level list requires the interactive tool, the narrative points to specific types of places: certain high-cost California metros that relied on both domestic and international inflows; some legacy industrial cities in the Midwest and Northeast with long-standing out-migration and established immigrant communities; and select markets like Miami, where both trends appear to be converging negatively.
Implications for the Housing Market
Population flow is not the sole determinant of housing prices and sales—interest rates, inventory, and local economics are paramount. However, demographic trends set the long-term foundation for demand.
- For “Double-Whammy” Markets: The combined pressure means a smaller pool of new households forming. This exacerbates challenges for sellers, potentially leading to longer listing times and price pressure, especially in segments reliant on first-time and move-up buyers. Local governments and developers may need to reassess growth projections.
- For Domestic Inflow Markets: These areas continue to receive a double benefit. Inbound movers provide immediate demand, and many of these same markets (e.g., Texas, Florida, the Carolinas) also continue to attract international immigrants, albeit at a slower pace. This sustained in-migration supports stronger housing fundamentals, even as they grapple with their own affordability and infrastructure strains.
- For Markets with Stable Immigration: Some major gateways may see their relative competitive advantage grow if their international inflows hold steadier than the national trend, potentially offsetting domestic losses to a degree.
To be sure, the housing market is subject to a host of factors other than just population movement, but this is one crucial part of the picture. Intel will continue to track how these various factors are playing out at the local level.
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