Latin America’s Political Shift: Examining the Rise of Conservative Leaders and Their Stance on China
Recent electoral outcomes in Chile and Peru, part of a broader trend across Latin America, have sparked significant discussion about the region’s geopolitical orientation. President-elect José Antonio Kast in Chile and Lima’s former mayor Rafael López Aliaga, who leads polls for Peru’s upcoming election, are emblematic of a new generation of conservative figures gaining prominence. This wave follows conservative victories in countries like Costa Rica and Honduras, suggesting a notable political shift.
For much of the early 21st century, Latin America saw deepening economic and diplomatic ties with China. Beijing’s strategy, characterized by large-scale commodity purchases, infrastructure financing through initiatives like the Belt and Road, and active diplomatic engagement, solidified its influence. However, current political developments indicate a potential recalibration, with these new leaders advocating for a relationship with China based on different principles.
A Pragmatic Approach to China: Trade Without Ceding Influence
Neither Kast nor López Aliaga is calling for an end to economic relations with China. Data from the United Nations Comtrade database confirms that China remains the largest trading partner for both nations, primarily importing copper, lithium, and other critical minerals. Their position, often described by analysts as one of “pragmatic skepticism,” accepts the economic benefits of this trade but draws a clear line at strategic and political encroachment.
This stance is manifesting in specific policy areas. In Chile, President-elect Kast has raised questions about a major undersea telecommunications cable project linking South America to Asia, which involves China Mobile. Submarine fiber-optic cables are critical infrastructure carrying global internet traffic, and their ownership and control are subjects of growing geopolitical competition. Kast’s demand for greater transparency frames the issue as one of national security and digital sovereignty, aligning with concerns raised by the United States about Chinese control of such networks.
Similarly, in Peru, López Aliaga has been a vocal critic of certain Chinese activities. During the 2021 presidential campaign, he rejected the Chinese-made Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine, echoing international debates about efficacy and transparency. He has also pledged to expel foreign vessels engaged in illegal fishing, specifically pointing to large Chinese fleets operating off South America’s coast—a practice documented by organizations like Global Fishing Watch and the Environmental Justice Foundation that contributes to marine resource depletion. Furthermore, he has highlighted concerns about corruption and lack of transparency in Chinese bids for Peruvian infrastructure contracts.
The Broader Context: A Rebalancing Toward the United States?
The political shift is not occurring in a vacuum. Observers note a broader, voter-driven trend toward leadership that emphasizes alignment with the United States and shared Western democratic values. This is evident from Argentina to Central America. The underlying driver appears to be a regional desire for partnerships perceived as based on mutual security and transparent rules, rather than solely on transactional economic deals.
It is crucial to contextualize this within Latin America’s long history of navigating external influence. The current mood reflects a weariness with perceived neocolonial practices from any power, including concerns about debt traps, lack of local job creation from some Chinese projects, and the export of authoritarian governance models. The Catholic social tradition, influential for figures like Kast and López Aliaga, emphasizes human dignity, subsidiarity, and skepticism of both unrestrained state control (as in Marxist ideology) and unchecked corporate power, providing a philosophical framework that views the Chinese Communist Party’s model with inherent suspicion.
However, this does not signal a uniform or irreversible “realignment.” The region’s economic reality is deeply intertwined with China. The shift is better understood as a push for a more balanced, multi-vector foreign policy where economic engagement with China is conditioned on adherence to local laws, environmental standards, and security considerations. The pro-US tilt is primarily a political and values-based alignment, while economic relationships remain complex and multifaceted.
About the Author: Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers and an advisor to Catholic Vote. He has extensive experience directing political campaigns, including work on Hispanic outreach for the 2016 and 2020 Trump campaigns and the 2022 Vance U.S. Senate race. He is a former broadcaster for Fox News and CNN. The views expressed are his own and reflect his professional analysis of political trends.
