AIPAC’s High-Stakes Gamble in Illinois Primaries
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is investing nearly $22 million in Illinois Democratic House primaries, a move that highlights the group’s determination to influence elections even as its policy stance faces growing backlash within the party. This spending, channeled through shadowy shell political action committees, aims to defeat candidates critical of Israel’s government—yet recent tactical shifts risk alienating voters and inadvertently boosting more progressive opponents.
Concealed Spending and Strategic Shifts
In three of the four targeted Illinois races, AIPAC is using pop-up super PACs to obscure the source of its funding, avoiding its main vehicle, United Democracy Project. This approach mirrors patterns seen in other contests, where ads focus on local issues rather than Israel to downplay the group’s involvement. However, in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky, AIPAC abruptly changed tactics after initially attacking Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, a Jewish candidate and grandson of a Holocaust survivor who has criticized Israeli policies. The group pivoted to target Palestinian-American candidate Kat Abughazaleh, a vocal critic of Israel who has gained late momentum, potentially splitting the progressive vote and aiding AIPAC’s preferred moderate, state Sen. Laura Fine.
“There’s been a strategy shift,” disclosed a source familiar with AIPAC’s thinking, speaking anonymously. “Our primary goal in Illinois is to prevent potential ‘Squad’ members from being elected to Congress.” This cameo reference to the progressive congressional caucus underscores AIPAC’s broader aim to curb left-wing influence.
The New Jersey Warning
AIPAC’s maneuvers recall its recent $2 million effort to oust former Rep. Tom Malinowski in a New Jersey special election. Malinowski, a pro-Israel moderate who opposed unconditional aid to Israel, lost to Analilia Mejia, a progressive who has accused Israel of genocide in Gaza. That outcome infuriated centrist Democrats, who view it as a self-sabotaging fumble. “No one wants to see another New Jersey 11 … and everyone should be concerned about it happening,” warned a Democratic donor adviser close to AIPAC, granted anonymity.
Public Opinion and Political Backlash
AIPAC’s full-throated support for Israel’s war in Gaza has made it increasingly toxic on the left, a sentiment exacerbated by recent U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Polling data reveals shifting Democratic attitudes: 62% of Democrats believe America is too supportive of Israel, compared to 22% who think support is appropriate and 8% who want more backing, per a Quinnipiac University poll released last week. This context amplifies concerns about AIPAC’s interventions. “AIPAC may deliver another candidate who is plainly not on their agenda,” observed David Axelrod, a veteran Chicago strategist and former Obama adviser. “These ads are not branded as AIPAC for a reason, so there’s a recognition that they are a controversial presence in Democratic primaries.”
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, weighing a presidential run, framed Illinois as a bellwether: “Illinois is literally the first stop on the way to an ugly future, where billionaires will be the dominant players and candidates will be pawns in their world.” His comment ties AIPAC’s spending to a larger trend of outside money, including from crypto groups, distorting primaries.
Race-by-Race Breakdown
AIPAC’s allied super PACs are active across multiple Illinois contests:
- IL-9 (Schakowsky’s seat): Elect Chicago Women spent heavily on TV and digital ads attacking Biss while boosting Fine. After the New Jersey setback, AIP
