By [Author Name], Certified Financial Planner™
The final trading day of March saw a market rally, fueled by tentative hopes for a resolution to the conflict in Iran. This late-month surge offered a brief reprieve, but it couldn’t fully erase the memory of a turbulent month. For the quarter, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq each declined by approximately 5%, capping off a losing quarter. This volatility wasn’t an isolated event; it was the culmination of ongoing uncertainty stemming from multiple global flashpoints, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela, geopolitical discussions around Greenland, and stress in the Japanese bond market.
The Peril of Timing the Market
According to Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, investors should prepare for continued dramatic swings. “Now is still a good time to be taking risk, but realize it is going to be a choppy, bumpy ride over the course of this year,” Manley stated. His firm’s analysis of two decades of S&P 500 data reveals a critical lesson: six of the market’s ten best days occurred within two weeks of its ten worst days. A stark example was 2020, where the second-worst day (March 12) was immediately followed by the second-best day of the year. The data is unequivocal—investors who move in and out of the market, attempting to avoid downturns, often miss these crucial upside moves, severely damaging their long-term returns. Those who remained fully invested historically captured the best outcomes.
Building a Resilient Strategy
So, how can investors navigate this environment? Manley and other advisors stress two foundational principles: diversification and a disciplined plan.
Diversification Beyond a Single Market
While a simple, “set-it-and-forget-it” investment in the S&P 500 has delivered strong results—with gains of roughly 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 16% in 2025—relying solely on large-cap U.S. equities increases vulnerability to sector-specific or domestic shocks. To better weather volatility, Manley recommends a portfolio with exposure to international equities, fixed-income securities, and real assets like real estate investment trusts (REITs) or commodities. These categories often have low or negative correlations to the broad stock market, providing a buffer during equity downturns.
The Plan is Personal
Brian Schmehil, a Certified Financial Planner™ and Managing Director at The Mather Group in Chicago, emphasizes that a robust plan is the antidote to emotional decision-making. “Everybody thinks the wealth advisor is supposed to pick the best stocks or give you the best tax strategy,” Schmehil noted. “That is true, but with the age of AI, a lot of that stuff’s going to be table stakes. What’s really going to matter is having somebody that can understand your emotions.”
An effective plan includes two key components: a cash reserve for short-term goals (typically 1-2 years of living expenses) to prevent forced selling during downturns, and a clear asset allocation strategy for long-term investments. Regular rebalancing—selling a portion of assets that have grown and buying those that have lagged—enforces a “buy low, sell high” discipline. Crucially, this strategy must align with your personal risk tolerance. Understanding how much volatility you can stomach without abandoning your plan is essential to staying the course when markets turn uncomfortable.
The Long-Term View on U.S. Equities
Despite the headwinds, Manley maintains a constructive long-term view on U.S. equities. “In any given year, you might have a bad year being a U.S. stock investor,” he conceded, referencing the current year-to-date decline of about 3.5% for the S&P 500. “But over the long run, history has shown very clearly that U.S. equities are a great place to generate wealth.” This perspective is grounded in decades of data showing the resilience and growth of the American corporate sector. The current volatility, while unsettling, is not unprecedented and is often a feature, not a bug, of long-term wealth accumulation.
In summary, the path through market turbulence is less about predicting headlines and more about preparing your portfolio and your mindset. By maintaining a diversified mix of assets, holding a sufficient cash buffer, and adhering to a personalized, rebalanced investment plan, investors can position themselves to endure the bumps and benefit from the inevitable recoveries, which, as history shows, can arrive with startling speed.
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