As the April 15 tax filing deadline approaches, early data from the Internal Revenue Service reveals a notable trend: taxpayers are receiving larger refunds this season. According to the latest IRS filing statistics, the average tax refund is 10.9% higher compared to the same period in 2025. As of March 20, the mean refund amount for individual filers stood at $3,571, up from $3,221 roughly one year ago. This analysis is based on approximately 79 million individual returns processed so far, out of the roughly 164 million total the IRS expects to receive by the deadline.
Why Are Refunds Higher This Year?
The increase in average refunds can be attributed to several factors, including inflation adjustments to tax brackets and standard deductions, which mean more income may be taxed at lower rates for many filers. Additionally, certain tax credits, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Child Tax Credit (CTC), have retained higher maximum amounts for the 2025 tax year, potentially boosting refunds for eligible families. It’s important to note that a refund represents an overpayment of taxes withheld during the year; a larger refund means less take-home pay in each paycheck, which may not be the most efficient financial strategy for all households.
How Average Refunds Could Shift Before the Deadline
While the average has trended upward for several weeks, experts suggest major fluctuations are unlikely in the final weeks. “It’s less likely we’re going to see a major change” before the April 15 deadline, stated William McBride, chief economist at the non-partisan Tax Foundation. However, one key policy change could still influence later filers and potentially raise the final average.
The Impact of the Increased SALT Deduction Cap
For the 2025 tax year, legislation raised the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction to $40,000, up from $10,000. This change primarily benefits higher-income taxpayers in states with high income and property taxes. “It’s a pretty big deal for higher-income folks that live in expensive cities,” McBride explained. “Those people don’t tend to file [tax returns] early.”
To benefit from the more generous SALT cap, taxpayers must itemize their deductions rather than claim the standard deduction. Historically, itemizing has been less common. During tax year 2022, IRS data showed nearly 90% of returns used the standard deduction, while only about 15 million returns (fewer than 10% of filings) claimed the SALT deduction. Experts anticipate that the higher SALT limit could incentivize more high-earners, particularly those with significant state tax liabilities, to itemize for 2025.
This shift may occur later in the filing season because complex income sources—such as brokerage account statements, K-1 forms from partnerships, or final business income documents—often arrive closer to the deadline. Taxpayers with these types of income typically require more time to prepare their returns.
Key Considerations for Taxpayers
As the deadline nears, filers should focus on accuracy over speed. Rushing can lead to errors that delay refunds. Taxpayers who anticipate itemizing should gather all relevant documents, including mortgage interest statements, charitable contribution receipts, and, critically, records of state and local taxes paid. The decision to itemize should be based on a total that exceeds the standard deduction for your filing status ($30,000 for married couples filing jointly and $15,000 for single filers in 2025).
For personalized guidance, consulting a qualified tax professional is advisable, especially for those with complex finances or those looking to optimize their strategy in light of recent legislative changes. Remember, a refund is not a bonus but a return of your own money; adjusting withholding on Form W-4 can help manage cash flow throughout the year.
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