USD/CAD Encounters Resistance at Key March High, 100-Hour MA Emerges as Critical Support
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair ascended to challenge a significant technical barrier, only to face a decisive rejection. The currency pair successfully breached last Friday’s peak, climbing to test the formidable early March high near 1.3752. The intraday rally, however, lost momentum just below this level, with the price reaching a high of 1.37476 before reversing sharply lower. This failure to establish a new high for the month represents a short-term disappointment for the bullish cohort, particularly as buying pressure visibly waned in the vicinity of the resistance.
Pullback Finds Support at Dynamic Moving Average
The subsequent corrective wave saw the quotation retreat decisively through the 1.37149–1.37243 swing support area. The descent then extended to probe the rising 100-hour moving average, currently situated at 1.37044. This dynamic support level has demonstrated remarkable resilience, now having held firm on three separate tests—two occasions during the prior session and once in the current one. This repeated defense underscores the 100-hour MA’s status as a near-term risk-defining level for the pair.
Technical Outlook: The 100-Hour MA as the Pivot Point
From a tactical standpoint, the price action above the 100-hour moving average maintains a short-term upside bias. As long as this floor remains intact, the bulls retain a degree of control. A renewed push above the 1.3724 threshold would likely re-ignite the prior rally, reopening the path toward the recent high zone between 1.37409 and 1.3752. A conclusive break above this congestion would then signal potential for a further rally, with the next major target being the 2024 peak near 1.3928.
Conversely, a definitive break and close below the 100-hour MA at 1.37044 would transfer immediate control to the sellers. In such a scenario, initial downside objectives are the yesterday’s low at 1.3687 and the Tuesday’s low at 1.3679. A sustained violation of these levels would likely amplify bearish momentum, exposing deeper Fibonacci retracement levels from the broader uptrend that began in late 2023.
Bottom line:
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Trade above the 100-hour MA (1.37044) suggests buyers are defending the short-term uptrend.
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A break below this level hands the short-term initiative to sellers, with 1.3687 and 1.3679 as initial targets.
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