Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $66,000 as Wall Street opened for trading on Friday, March 28, 2026, pressured by a sudden surge in geopolitical risk that rattled global markets. The cryptocurrency’s decline, approaching 4% on the day, threatened to seal a historic sixth consecutive monthly loss—a streak not seen since the depths of the 2018 bear market. Analysts pointed to a confluence of factors, from Middle East supply shocks to a dramatic reversal in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, as driving a broad derisking across assets.
Geopolitical Shockwaves Rattle Traditional Markets
The immediate catalyst was Iran’s announcement that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. This action, escalating the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, sparked immediate fears of supply disruptions. U.S. stocks opened lower in response, but the volatility was perhaps most acute in the bond market.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield soared to its highest level since the conflict began, creating a “major headache” for the Federal Reserve. The rapid shift in market pricing was stark: within a month, expectations had pivoted from multiple rate cuts to a potential pause lasting 18 months, with even the base case now factoring in persistent inflation.
“In less than one month, markets have gone from discussing rate cuts to rate hikes,” the report stated, highlighting the core dilemma. “The Fed was cutting interest rates because the labor market was weak, and it remains weak. However, inflation expectations have just become an even bigger problem than the labor market. This is objectively unsustainable.” This assessment was underscored by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which showed probabilities for a hike climbing sharply.
The link between oil prices and inflation is well-established by economic history. Higher energy costs feed directly into consumer price indices, complicating the Fed’s dual mandate. This macro environment triggered a classic “risk-off” move, with investors exiting volatile assets like Bitcoin and, in some cases, even selling bonds—a paradoxical flight to safety that pushed yields higher.
Bitcoin Faces Technical Breakdown Near $70,000
Against this turbulent backdrop, Bitcoin’s price action reflected the broader market stress. After breaking below a key ascending trendline, BTC/USD established lower highs beneath the $70,000–$72,000 “supply” zone, a level now cast as significant resistance. The loss of the $68,000 support opened the path toward lower demand zones, with analysts targeting the $64,000–$65,000 range.
“BTC has clearly broken its ascending trendline and is now showing lower highs under the 70–72K supply, confirming a short-term bearish shift,” noted the Telegram-based analysis service Crypto Technical Analyst. “With price losing the 68K support, continuation toward the 64–65K demand zone is likely, and only a reclaim above 70K would invalidate the bearish momentum.”
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades echoed this caution, focusing on liquidity pools. “Seeing there’s still quite a bit of liquidity around that area,” he said, referring to the prior week’s low near $65,600. “Eyes on that $65.6K low from last week Monday. Main area to watch for me will be the range low.”
The monthly close looms large. Data from CoinGlass confirms that a red March would mark Bitcoin’s first six-month losing streak since 2018, a statistical milestone that underscores the severity of the current downturn.
Context: Why Oil and Bonds Matter for Bitcoin
The chain of events illustrates Bitcoin’s evolving, albeit complex, relationship with macro markets. While often touted as an inflation hedge, BTC has frequently demonstrated short-term correlation with risk assets like tech stocks during periods of severe monetary tightening or economic stress. The current episode is driven not by classic demand destruction, but by a supply-side inflation shock (oil) that forces central banks into a corner, raising the cost of capital and prompting a sell-off in all duration-sensitive assets.
Furthermore, the surge in Treasury yields increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The simultaneous stress in the bond market—where prices fall as yields rise—signals a deep institutional reassessment of the outlook, adding another layer of downward pressure on cryptocurrencies.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
