At a recent CNBC CEO Council event in Arizona, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell underscored the league’s unmatched value in the media landscape—a reality currently being negotiated at the bargaining table. As first reported by CNBC, the NFL and Paramount Global, through its CBS network, have entered substantive renewal talks for the rights to broadcast Sunday afternoon games. These discussions, still private, are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for sports media economics.
CBS Negotiations Lead the Pack
Sources familiar with the negotiations indicate that CBS, which currently pays an average of $2.1 billion annually for its Sunday package, is facing a potential fee increase with a midpoint around 50% to 60%. A 50% hike would push the annual cost beyond $3 billion for the next eight-year term, beginning as soon as the 2025 season. In exchange, the NFL is prepared to eliminate an opt-out clause that was originally scheduled after the 2029-30 season, granting the league long-term stability and Paramount a guaranteed commitment.
This move comes amid significant corporate flux at Paramount. As CFO Dennis Cinelli told investors, Paramount projects $3.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026. Should its proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery gain regulatory approval, the combined entity is forecast to generate $18 billion in adjusted EBITDA. Paramount CEO David Ellison reinforced the partnership’s importance to CNBC, stating, “We have a phenomenal relationship with the NFL, and we anticipate that continuing for the foreseeable future… they are one of our most important partners.”
Why CBS Is First: The Change-of-Control Catalyst
The NFL’s decision to lead with Paramount is not arbitrary. The pending Skydance Media acquisition of Paramount Global includes a change-of-control provision that allows the NFL to terminate its agreement as early as 2027. This legal lever gives the league unique leverage to renegotiate terms now, before the corporate structure shifts. Following CBS, the NFL is expected to turn its attention to Fox, as both networks hold analogous Sunday afternoon packages. Fox’s current fee is slightly higher, approximately $2.2 billion annually, though CEO Lachlan Murdoch noted at the Morgan Stanley conference that “we haven’t had any material conversations” on renewal yet.
The Broader Media Portfolio: A Tale of Three Packages
Other major NFL partners—Comcast’s NBCUniversal (Sunday Night Football), Amazon Prime Video (Thursday Night Football), and Disney’s ESPN/ABC (Monday Night Football)—also have opt-out clauses in their deals, but at later dates (NBC/Amazon/Fox by 2030, Disney by 2031). The league has not yet initiated material discussions with these entities. Industry insiders suggest the NFL may not apply a uniform 50% increase across all packages.
There is a growing sentiment among executives at NBC and Disney that the relative strength of their prime-time packages has waned. The strategic decision to award Amazon increasingly competitive Thursday night games in recent years has, in their view, diluted the exclusivity and value of the traditional Sunday and Monday night slots. ESPN’s current $2.7 billion annual fee for Monday Night Football means a 50% increase would demand a fee exceeding $4 billion—a figure Disney is considered unlikely to accept without significant structural changes to the deal.
Downstream Implications for the Sports Media Ecosystem
The financial framework established in these NFL renewals will set a ceiling for all sports rights for the next decade. The NHL, whose current deals with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery expire after the 2028 season, is acutely aware of this. Commissioner Gary Bettman has held preliminary discussions, but sources indicate he will likely await the conclusion of Paramount’s merger with WBD before finalizing any new agreement. An NHL spokesperson stated, “As with an ongoing relationship, you’re always talking about the future, and from our standpoint it’s not in the context of the NFL.”
The anticipated massive outlays by the major broadcasters will force portfolio recalibration. Lachlan Murdoch conceded Fox will need to “rebalance” its sports holdings after settling with the NFL. This creates opportunities for nimbler players. Mark Lazarus, CEO of Versant (parent of USA Network and CNBC), told investors he is “prepared for the sports landscape to be shifting,” noting that the inflated NFL costs could open doors for his networks to acquire rights to leagues like the NHL or MLB that might have previously been out of reach.
The stage is set for a series of transformative deals. The CBS negotiation is the first domino, and its outcome will echo through boardrooms from ESPN to the NHL, reshaping how live sports are valued and distributed for a generation.
