U.S. Military Buildup in the Middle East Raises Stakes Over Iran’s Strait of Hormuz
Despite President Trump’s stated intention to quickly wind down confrontation with Iran, the United States has significantly reinforced its military posture in the Middle East. In recent days, over 5,000 U.S. Marines, paratroopers, and special operations forces have deployed to the region, a move that analysts interpret as preparing for a potential large-scale ground operation.
Strategic Target: Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz
President Trump has explicitly threatened to invade and “obliterate” Iran’s primary oil export terminal on Kharg Island if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, through which a substantial portion of the world’s seaborne oil and gas normally passes, has been effectively closed by Iran since it came under attack by U.S. and Israeli forces approximately one month ago.
Reaching Kharg Island, located roughly 500 miles into the Persian Gulf, would require a complex amphibious assault. Retired Marine Corps Colonel Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasizes the difficulty: “That would be very risky… That’s why I think that opening the strait might be first.” U.S. officials indicate the administration is also evaluating the seizure of islands within or adjacent to the strait to secure the shipping lanes.
The Island Garrison Challenge
Iran has fortified a cluster of islands—including Qeshm, Larak, Abu Musa, and the Tunb islands—with military outposts. From these positions, Iranian forces can deploy drones, anti-ship missiles, and swarms of fast-attack boats to blanket the narrow strait. According to Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, neutralizing this threat would likely require capturing the entire island group: “They need to take all of them.”
The approximately 2,000 U.S. paratroopers and special operations forces recently deployed could be tasked with such an invasion. Their mission would include dismantling extensive tunnel networks and underground missile bases that Dr. Nadimi describes as “inaccessible even to bunker buster bombs.” Commanders would then face a critical decision: destroy the facilities and withdraw, or maintain a prolonged hold on the islands to secure the strait and gain leverage in future negotiations.
High Risks of a Prolonged Occupation
Holding any captured island would be a perilous endeavor. Defending troops would require robust Marine contingents and integrated air defenses against relentless Iranian drone, missile, and rocket fire from the mainland. Dr. Nadimi characterizes this as a “high-risk, high-casualty undertaking.” Furthermore, a military seizure alone may not restore commercial shipping. “You have to reassure the mariners, you have to reassure shipping companies and insurance companies that it’s safe enough to sail through,” explains Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London.
Even if U.S. forces secured other islands, Kharg Island itself remains a critical objective. Satellite imagery from Planet Labs (dated March 18) and analysis confirm that the facility handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, calls it “the Achilles’ heel of the regime’s oil export infrastructure.” However, the island’s hilly, fortified terrain and volatile oil storage make any amphibious landing exceptionally dangerous.
Political and Operational Pitfalls
Experts warn Iran could employ a scorched-earth strategy, destroying its own oil infrastructure to prevent U.S. capture. Politically, an operation that fails to force an Iranian surrender could be perceived as a defeat, especially if U.S. forces eventually withdraw. Iran would likely seek to protract any conflict into a war of attrition. “What they want is maximum casualties on the Americans, because that creates the sort of images that will change public opinion in the United States,” Mr. Krieg notes.
The deployment of thousands of additional troops underscores the gravity of the U.S. contingency planning. Yet, as military and strategic analysts consulted for this report make clear, any attempt to physically seize and hold territory in the Gulf carries immense operational hazards and uncertain strategic returns, potentially escalating a crisis that the president has also pledged to de-escalate.
