MAGA Cheers as Trump Withholds Endorsement in High-Stakes Texas Senate Runoff
As the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) convenes in Grapevine, Texas, a palpable sense of triumph is permeating the MAGA (Make America Great Again) wing of the Republican Party. Their cause for celebration? A strategic victory that has, thus far, kept former President Donald Trump from endorsing incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the upcoming May GOP primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
For MAGA activists, the absence of a Cornyn endorsement from Trump—combined with a notable lack of significant spending and polling from Cornyn’s campaign and major GOP outside groups—reads as a clear signal. They interpret it as Washington’s tacit acceptance of a general election matchup they prefer: Paxton versus Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Steve Bannon, the former Trump strategist who has framed Paxton’s bid as a pivotal battle for the movement’s soul, told POLITICO, “The grassroots stood in the breach and said a resounding ‘NO’ to Cornyn. Polling and spending indicates that the Republican DC establishment reluctantly concurs. This could be the victory that empowers MAGA through the midterms.”
Trump’s Deliberate Silence and the SAVE Act Factor
Despite the optimistic reading from the base, Paxton is leaving nothing to chance. He actively courted Trump at a Palm Beach County GOP dinner last Friday, where multiple sources confirmed the two spoke on the patio. While a Paxton spokesperson declined to comment, those familiar described the meeting as positive and noted they discussed the runoff. This underscores Paxton’s fervent campaign to prevent a Cornyn endorsement.
However, Trump’s decision is far from settled, according to five Republicans close to the White House. The former president’s calculus is reportedly vexed by the ongoing Senate debate over the SAVE Act, a voting integrity bill. A White House ally explained the stance: “Trump isn’t going to endorse against Cornyn while the Save America Act is still being debated.” Another official noted the fluidity: “Nothing is dead… It’s all just stasis at the moment.” A third person familiar with Trump’s thinking added that an endorsement for Paxton could come after the SAVE Act debate concludes, particularly if Paxton maintains his polling lead.
This strategic patience is viewed by some as Trump attempting to “exact a policy win” before inserting himself into the race. The consensus among operatives is that a Trump endorsement would be a decisive boon for Paxton, but his silence may be equally powerful. As one GOP insider stated, “No question Paxton wins if Trump stays out though.” Crucially, the filing deadline for candidates to withdraw from the ballot has passed, locking in the Paxton-Cornyn showdown with nearly two months until the May runoff.
Money, Resources, and the Establishment’s Calculus
The spending patterns are a key part of the MAGA victory narrative. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned nonprofit One Nation have not launched significant advertising in the race. Cornyn’s own campaign has also been relatively quiet on the airwaves. One GOP operative briefed on strategy suggested the outside groups are conserving resources, not conceding: “Not cause they are throwing in the towel.”
Cornyn’s team pushes back forcefully, framing the contest as a resource equation. Senior adviser Matt Mackowiak highlighted Paxton’s fundraising struggles: “Ken Paxton said he needed $20M to win this primary and he’s barely raised a quarter of that.” He contrasted this with Cornyn’s plan, adding, “His professional failures and indefensible personal conduct make GOP donors and Texas primary voters deeply uncomfortable.” Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser for the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority, framed the broader strategic dilemma: “Does the GOP want to spend $150-200 million holding what should be a safe seat and giving up other opportunities to gain advantage?”
The NRSC publicly reinforced its support for Cornyn. Sp
