Scaramucci Attributes Bitcoin Bear Market to Cycle Psychology and Profit-Taking at $100K
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, has offered a framework for understanding the current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, pointing to both the enduring influence of the asset’s historical four-year cycle and strategic selling by long-term holders at a key psychological barrier.
In a recent interview on the “Wolf of All Streets” podcast, Scaramucci suggested that the cycle’s predictability can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. “We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he stated.
He noted that while institutional capital inflows through U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have “muted” traditional volatility and altered market dynamics, they have not entirely erased the cyclical pattern. This “garden variety” correction, he argued, aligns with previous downturns.
Source: The Wolf of All Streets podcast
The Shattered $150,000 Consensus and Contrarian Moves
Scaramucci revealed that the prevailing consensus among market participants, including himself, heading into 2025 was a surge to $150,000 per BTC. This optimism was largely fueled by expectations of a pro-cryptocurrency agenda under President Donald Trump and a more accommodating regulatory environment in the United States.
That consensus was “completely shattered” by the October market crash, which saw Bitcoin plummet from its all-time high near $126,000 to a low of $60,000. Scaramucci highlighted a key market axiom: price action often moves contrary to widespread sentiment. He drew a parallel to early 2023, when a period of “great disinterest and great apathy” following the FTX collapse ironically marked the beginning of the next bull phase.
Bitcoin’s recovery began in January 2023 amid widespread apathy following the FTX collapse. Source: TradingView
Looking ahead, Scaramucci forecasts a period of choppy, range-bound price action for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, with the next significant bull market cycle not expected to commence until the fourth quarter of 2026.
Geopolitical Headwinds and Macro Correlations
Beyond cycle theory, Bitcoin faces immediate headwinds from escalating geopolitical tensions. As the conflict in Iran entered its third week, BTC fell below $69,000, joining a broader sell-off in risk assets.
Bitcoin’s price faced downward pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty in March 2026. Source: CoinMarketCap
The downturn also impacted traditional markets, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 1.3% and closing below its critical 200-day moving average for the first time in ten months. This renewed focus on the potential risks of Bitcoin’s persistent positive correlation with U.S. equities. Some analysts now warn that if this linkage holds, BTC could see a 50% price decline in 2026 during a broader equity market downturn.
The Enduring Debate Over Bitcoin’s Cycle
Scaramucci’s views contribute to an ongoing industry debate. Crypto executives and analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin’s well-documented four-year halving cycle remains a valid model after the asset ended 2025 in negative territory, or if the influx of institutional money and new financial products like ETFs has permanently rewired its price behavior.
This discussion was recently highlighted in a Cointelegraph Magazine feature, where analyst Benjamin Cowen argued that the debate over the cycle’s relevance is settled, while others maintain that macro factors now dominate.
Related: Bitcoin price aims to hold $70K amid rising inflation concerns
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