AIPAC’s Illinois Primary Spending Yields Mixed Results Amid Shifting Voter Sentiment
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) faced a complex political landscape in Illinois’s 2024 House primaries, spending a record sum but achieving only partial success. The group’s affiliated super PACs invested nearly $22 million across four competitive Democratic races—more than one-fifth of its declared $100 million war chest for the 2026 cycle—securing two victories while suffering high-profile defeats in the contests where it spent the most. The outcomes have ignited fresh debate over the organization’s strategy and influence within the Democratic Party as U.S. public opinion on Israel continues to evolve.
A Split Scorecard in Key Races
AIPAC-backed candidates prevailed in two districts. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller defeated former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in the 2nd District, while former Rep. Melissa Bean overcame a field of progressive challengers in the 8th District.
However, the group’s most expensive interventions faltered. In the 9th District, an AIPAC-aligned super PAC spent approximately $7 million primarily to attack Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, a candidate with an Israeli mother who has been critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza. After shifting its negative advertising to target progressive Palestinian American influencer Kat Abughazaleh, the PAC failed to stop Biss, who won the crowded primary. Mayor Biss framed the result as a rebuke of AIPAC, stating at his victory party, “AIPAC found out the hard way — the 9th District is not for sale.”
In the 7th District, a separate AIPAC-affiliated super PAC invested nearly $5 million to support Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin. She was defeated by state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who has declined to commit to unconditional military aid for Israel.
Context and Criticism from Within the Pro-Israel Community
These results follow a similar misfire last month in New Jersey, where AIPAC’s last-minute spending against former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) helped hand the primary to progressive Analilia Mejia, a stronger critic of Israeli policy. A longtime AIPAC member, speaking anonymously, criticized the strategy in Illinois: “There was once again a vast amount of money spent and wasted… Israel should be happy to have in Congress supporting a strong U.S.-Israel relationship.” The member added that AIPAC should “reconsider their strategy” in light of the outcomes.
Even allies offered tempered assessments. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), who supported some AIPAC-backed candidates, noted pragmatically, “You win some, you lose some… if a group wins every race they’re involved in, you probably haven’t pushed the boundaries as far as you can.”
AIPAC, for its part, asserted a positive narrative. Spokesperson Deryn Sousa stated: “Illinois voters rejected half a dozen anti-Israel candidates across several heavily Democratic open-seat races.” Patrick Dorton, spokesperson for the super PAC United Democracy Project, argued the group’s late spending against Abughazaleh likely prevented her from beating Biss and considered the overall outcome a “pro-Israel win” for the Chicago delegation.
Shifting National Sentiment on Israel
The Illinois battles occur against a backdrop of dramatically shifting U.S. public opinion, particularly among Democrats. Recent polls underscore this trend:
- An NBC News poll released this week showed 57% of Democrats now view Israel negatively, a sharp increase from 35% following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.
- A Quinnipiac University survey found 44% of all voters believe the U.S. is too supportive of Israel—the highest percentage since the poll began in 2017. Among Democrats, that figure rises to 62%.
These numbers help explain why AIPAC’s Illinois advertising largely avoided discussing Israel directly, instead framing opponents as insufficiently progressive on domestic issues. However, the strategy was turned against them, with candidates like Biss making AIPAC’s spending a central campaign issue.
What the Results Mean for the Delegation and Future Fights
The ideological composition of Illinois’s House delegation on Israel issues is unlikely to shift dramatically. Bean replaces the pro-Israel Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi. Biss’s views are broadly aligned with his predecessor, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a frequent AIPAC critic who endorsed him. Ford and Rep. Danny Davis have both expressed reservations about unconditional aid. The most notable change may be Miller replacing Rep. Robin Kelly, who called the war in Gaza a “genocide.”
Opponents of AIPAC, such as the advocacy group J Street (which spent $350,000 supporting Biss), declared victory. President Jeremy Ben-Ami said the results “should send a clear message to candidates across the country: you do not have to fear AIPAC’s spending or intimidation.”
Yet AIPAC’s financial power remains formidable. A pro-Israel donor advisor, speaking anonymously, predicted the narrative would focus on eliminating “the worst people” rather than the losses, noting, “There’s no shortage of money” for future cycles.
The Illinois primaries serve as a critical case study: massive spending can win some races but is not a guarantee, especially when it clashes with a rapidly changing electorate. With key Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota and numerous House contests ahead, both AIPAC and its critics are analyzing these results to shape the next phase of political warfare.
Shia Kapos contributed to this report.
Clarification: This article has been updated to include Rep. La Shawn Ford’s views on aid to Israel.
